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Obama's post-convention bounce

By Paul Choiniere

Publication: theday.com

Published 09/10/2012 12:00 AM
Updated 09/11/2012 11:48 AM

President Obama has seen a bounce in the polls following the Democratic National Convention, moving ahead by several points in two key tracking polls. The boost in the president's poll standing was in contrast to his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, who saw no statistical change in his poll numbers after the Republican National Convention.

As of Monday morning the Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll has Obama leading Romney 49 percent to 45 percent. Rasmussen also reported that the president had made significant gains among voters aged 40 to 64.

Most remarkable, however, was the president's sudden surge in the Rasmussen approval rating poll, moving to 52 percent approval. Obama had not scored that high in the tracking poll since January 2011. The approval rating boost came despite Friday's disappointing jobs report, showing 96,000 jobs added in August, less than expected, and despite the withering TV attack ads the president faces in swing states. And this comes in a poll that has tended to trend a bit to the political right as compared to other polls.

The Gallup Tracking poll showed a similar surge, with Obama moving to a 49 percent to 44 percent advantage over Romney.

This all suggests the message the Democrats put forth in their convention — that the president's leadership saved the nation from slipping into a depression and that patience is warranted when it comes to recovering from such a serious economic crisis — gained some traction.

This is the point in the 2008 election when Obama began to pull away from the Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, but that seems very unlikely this time. Republicans, however they feel about Romney, are united in their desire to remove Obama from the presidency. There are no indications the economy will change substantially between now and the election, and rising gas prices are causing further voter angst. The race will likely tighten again in the coming weeks and the three October presidential debates could prove critical.

What is most remarkable, perhaps, is that the president leads in the polls despite heading into such tough economic headwinds. Those in the Romney campaign should be asking themselves what they are doing wrong.

UPDATE:

OK, R, here is the CNN info:

A new survey indicates President Barack Obama moved up four points following the Democratic National Convention last week, and now has a six point advantage over his Republican challenger Mitt Romney. According to a CNN/ORC International Poll (PDF) released Monday, 52% of likely voters nationwide back the president, compared to 46% for Romney. Just before the convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, Obama was tied with Romney 48%-48%.

 

 

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